【AIセンチメント分析】USDJPY 最新ニュース分析は「弱気 (Bearish)」（2026-07-03 01:04時点）

最新の主要な外国為替市場（FX）ニュースを解析し、USDJPY に対する市場心理（センチメント）と影響度を判定しました。

AIによる市場センチメント解説

米国の雇用統計が市場予想を下回ったことで米ドル金利の低下とドル売りが加速し、USDJPYが0.92%と大幅に下落。また、円安に対する介入警戒感も価格の重石となっているため。

今回の分析対象ニュース

AIが分析対象とした直近の主要ニュース一覧です。特にセンチメント判定に大きな影響を与えたニュースには「🔥 重要」マークを表示しています。

• [Forexlive] No 4th of July fireworks for the Nasdaq index
  <p class=”PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer”>So much for the fireworks in the Nasdaq.</p><p>Earlier today, I highlighted the potential for a Fourth of July, America’s 250th anniversary rally, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flashing bullish technical signals. The S&P was pulling away from its 200-hour moving average near 7471.61, while the Nasdaq had pushed above its own 200-hour moving average at 26211, suggesting buyers were gaining momentum.</p><p>Instead, sellers crashed the celebration.</p><p>The Nasdaq reversed sharply from its session high of 26261.09 and has fallen decisively into negative territory. The index is now down 192 points (-0.74%) at 25848.23, representing a swing of more than 410 points from the day’s high.</p><p>From a technical perspective, the reversal is significant. The index has fallen back below both its 200-hour moving average (26211.12) and its 100-hour moving average (25967.07). Trading near 25833, the Nasdaq sits roughly 130 points below the 100-hour moving average, putting sellers firmly back in control. For buyers to regain the upper hand, they first need to reclaim the 100-hour moving average and then retake the more important 200-hour moving average.</p><p>The S&P 500 is holding up better, but it is now fighting its own technical battle. The index continues to straddle its 200-hour moving average at 7471, with buyers trying to defend that key support. Holding above the level would preserve the near-term bullish bias. A sustained break below, however, would shift attention toward the 100-hour moving average at 7447.28.</p><p>It appears the stock market’s Independence Day celebration has been postponed. The fireworks fizzled before the finale, and unless buyers can quickly regroup, this holiday rally may end with a whimper rather than a bang. Maybe investors will have to save their patriotic cheers for the U.S. soccer team’s World Cup matchup against Belgium on Monday.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
• [Forexlive] Gold buyers make another play for control after yesterday’s run higher fizzled
  <p>Yesterday, the gold buyers pushed the price above the 100 and 200 hour MAs. I wrote about it in a post outlining the bullish tilt:</p><p>I ended that post saying the following:</p><ul><li>”If buyers can defend that support and extend the rally above today’s high at $4,115.67, it could trigger another wave of short covering and shift near-term momentum further in their favor. However, if the price slips back below the 200-hour moving average, attention will quickly turn to the 100-hour moving average. A break below that level would suggest today’s rally was merely a corrective bounce and would hand control back to the sellers.”</li></ul><p class=”PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer”>Looking at the hourly chart below, gold slipped back below its 200-hour moving average late yesterday (failing), shifting the technical focus to the rising 100-hour moving average instead. That support level was tested late yesterday and again during today’s early session, where buyers stepped in and defended it. The successful hold helped fuel a rebound that extended to fresh highs for the week, taking out yesterday’s peak near $4,115.</p><p>The rally also pushed the price back above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June 17 high, which comes in at $4,109.56. That keeps the buyers in firmer control in the short term, with today’s high reaching $4,144.15.</p><p>Going forward, holding support in the $4,100-$4,110 area will be key (yellow area) and the risk level for buyers looking for more upside. If buyers can establish a base above that zone, the next upside objective is the 50% retracement of the June 17 decline at $4,161.19. A break above that level would open the door toward the $4,212.83 area, where the 61.8% retracement converges with a key swing level.</p><p>A sustained move above $4,212.83 would represent another important technical victory for the bulls and shift the focus toward the $4,350-$4,375 resistance zone, where buyers would have a chance to regain much stronger control of the broader trend.</p><p>Adam – unbeknownst to me – had a similar idea. His post, however, outlines some key fundamental reasons to eye for new life. <a href=”https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-shows-some-life-in-a-100-rally-to-the-highest-since-june-23-20260702/” rel=”follow” target=”_blank”>Here is the link to his post. </a></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
• [Forexlive] Gold shows some life in a $100 rally to the highest since June 23
  <p>Gold has struggled badly since the start of the Iran war but it’s showing some signs of life today as it attempts to rebound above $4000. That big psychological levels was broken several times in the past week but with little follow through. That might indicate that buyers are adding at that level.</p><p>If so, it could be the start of a base.</p><p>The problem is, that’s a tough call to make with any kind of confidence. The war in Iran has effectively ended but gold hasn’t benefited at all. </p><p>More broadly, the US dollar has been strong this year as the AI spending investment boom boosts growth and pulls dollars into the United States. Today has been something of a reprieve with a softer non-farm payrolls report but it’s tough to envision a weak US economy from here given $700 billion in AI capex this year.</p><p>A more-sustainable bid for gold could come if we get the dollar weakening. USD/JPY is down 160 pips today as Japanese officials talk about stealth intervention in a change in tactics that highlights their unwillingness to allow the yen to hit fresh 40-year lows.</p><p>If the Iran peace extends we could start to see money flow back to Europe and emerging markets and that could undermine the dollar. I also sense better sentiment about global growth, which should lead to a trickle out of dollars. That said, the center of the AI boom is the United States (by far) and until that ends, it’s tough to bet against USD.</p><p>In terms of technicals, a bounce to $4400 is possible but we already tested that level in the bounce from the June gold breakdown and it didn’t last long, as gold then fell in 5 of 6 trading days. But if it can get above $4400, that could get some real attention.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
• [FXStreet] Indonesia: Stabilising FX and bonds as oil eases – DBS
  DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that Indonesia’s onshore FX and bond markets have stabilised following a correction in global Oil prices, though gains are modest.
• 🔥 重要 [FXStreet] Japanese Yen rebounds on softer US payrolls, intervention risks
  USD/JPY falls 0.92% on Thursday and trades around 161.05 at the time of writing after a much weaker-than-expected US employment report weighs on the US Dollar (USD).

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