【AIセンチメント分析】USDJPY 最新ニュース分析は「強気 (Bullish)」（2026-06-25 17:34時点）

最新の主要な外国為替市場（FX）ニュースを解析し、USDJPY に対する市場心理（センチメント）と影響度を判定しました。

AIによる市場センチメント解説

FRBのタカ派的な姿勢による米ドル高と、日銀の政策修正期待が円買いに繋がらないという円の弱さが同時に示されており、ドル円の上昇圧力が強いと判断されます。

今回の分析対象ニュース

AIが分析対象とした直近の主要ニュース一覧です。特にセンチメント判定に大きな影響を与えたニュースには「🔥 重要」マークを表示しています。

• 🔥 重要 [Forexlive] BOJ outlook shift hasn’t really translated to the yen – MUFG
  <p class=”text-align-justify”>There’s the saying that if something can’t go up on good news, there’s bound to be trouble up ahead. And the Japanese yen is definitely stuck in one of those situations.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>Even in times of risk aversion with equities retreating this week, the yen is not able to find much comfort. And that says a lot about how traders are viewing the currency at the moment. In times like these, the persisting negative mood will only end when it ends.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>In the case pointed out by MUFG, even a shift in BOJ outlook is not helping. And that to me further supports the narrative outlined above.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>”Pressure on Japan to intervene again to support yen has increased after the BOJ’s latest rate hike failed to disrupt the weakening trend. The release of the minutes overnight from the June policy meeting indicated support for further rate hikes. The BOJ has become less concerned over downside risks to growth while many members expressed awareness of upside risks to prices. The minutes suggested that one or two members may propose voting for another hike as soon as September or October. One member noted it is desirable ”to consider whether to raise the policy interest rate as appropriate with intervals of a few months in mind”.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>The Japanese rate market is now pricing in around 16bps of hikes by October. However, market expectations for the BOJ to speed up rate hikes have not yet triggered a stronger yen.”</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>For me, I don’t quite see a material shift in the BOJ outlook to be honest. The central bank has played things out as expected of them, given the US-Iran conflict and Japan government pressure. But regardless, it all still fits with the narrative that the yen just simply can’t get off the floor.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
• 🔥 重要 [Forexlive] Silver down more than 50% from all-time highs as Fed tightening risk weighs on the market
  <p class=”MsoNormal”>FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Silver has been falling hard in the recent days the fallout from the hawkish Fed decision continued to push real yields and the US dollar higher. We haven’t got any meaningful catalysts since the FOMC, so the markets continued to run mostly by inertia. The price has fallen more than 50% from the all-time highs. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). The market increased rate hike bets with now 37 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There’s a 34% chance of a hike already in July and 68% probability of a move in September.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. For a decent pullback, silver will need soft US data in the next weeks to trigger a dovish repricing that pushes real yields and the US dollar lower.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that silver has finally reached the major trendline around the 56.00 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a pullback into the downward trendline around the 65.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 45.00 level next. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we have another downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline.</p><p>SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we have yet another minor downward trendline. Again, since the bias remains bearish, the sellers will continue to look for opportunities to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for upside breaks to pile in and target new highs. The red lines define the <a href=”https://investinglive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/”>average daily range</a> for today. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class=”MsoNormal”><a href=”https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar”>Today</a>, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the US PCE report. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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