【AIセンチメント分析】USDJPY 最新ニュース分析は「強気 (Bullish)」（2026-07-01 20:03時点）

最新の主要な外国為替市場（FX）ニュースを解析し、USDJPY に対する市場心理（センチメント）と影響度を判定しました。

AIによる市場センチメント解説

FOMCのドットチャートがタカ派的だったことを背景にドル買いが加速し、ドル円が1986年以来の高値圏に突入。米国製造業PMIの底堅い予想やユーロ圏のインフレ鈍化に伴うドル高圧力が継続している。

今回の分析対象ニュース

AIが分析対象とした直近の主要ニュース一覧です。特にセンチメント判定に大きな影響を与えたニュースには「🔥 重要」マークを表示しています。

• [FXStreet] ECB’s Kocher: Next decisions will be either hike or hold
  European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said in the European trade on Wednesday that the next monetary policy move by the central bank will either be a hold or a hike, citing that higher wages could keep inflationary pressures elevated.
• 🔥 重要 [Forexlive] As the 2024 high gives way, USD/JPY extends into the highest levels since 1986. What next?
  <p class=”MsoNormal”>FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p>USD:</p><p>The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. </p><p>We saw some minor hawkish repricing yesterday as the total tightening expected by year-end rose to 37 bps vs 32 bps seen on Monday. We haven’t got any meaningful catalyst though, so that might have been just daily noise. </p><p>The focus is now on the US NFP and CPI reports ahead of the July FOMC meeting. The market is pricing in a 36% probability of a rate hike in July. Data in line or lower than forecasts should lead to some dovish repricing and weigh on the greenback in the short-term. Conversely, stronger than expected figures will likely boost the US dollar further. </p><p>JPY:</p><p>On the JPY side, nothing has changed fundamentally but the break above the 2024 high on USD/JPY increased the bearish momentum. There’s been some verbal intervention but nothing really strong yet. </p><p>On the monetary policy front, the BoJ hiked the policy rate to 1.00% as widely expected at the last meeting and announced the pause to the bond tapering programme from next fiscal year. </p><p>The forward guidance remained the same with the BoJ looking to continue the normalisation process, raising the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation “in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions”. </p><p>The divergence with the Fed will continue to keep the USD/JPY pair skewed to the upside until the US data starts to point in the other direction. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href=”https://it.tradingview.com/symbols/USDJPY/”>USDJPY</a> has finally broke out of the recent consolidation and reached the highest levels since 1986. The breakout acted as a catalyst and more buyers started to pile in to extend the rally into new highs. The old resistance around the 161.95 level will now likely act as support. </p><p>If we do get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the major upward trendline around the 158.00 handle.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into the support.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here although from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline and the support. The sellers, on the other hand, should wait for the price to fall back below the 161.95 level to start positioning into new lows. The red lines define the <a href=”https://investinglive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/”>average daily range</a> for today. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class=”MsoNormal”><a href=”https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar”>Today</a>, we have the US ADP report, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Warsh speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Tomorrow, we conclude with the US NFP report, and the US Jobless Claims figures. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
• 🔥 重要 [FXStreet] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to underline resilient US manufacturing activity
  Attention shifts to Wednesday’s release of the June ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), one of the most closely followed indicators of activity in the US manufacturing sector and an important barometer of the broader economy.
• 🔥 重要 [FXStreet] Euro extends its reversal below 1.1400 amid cooling Eurozone Inflation data
  The Euro’s (EUR) mild recovery against the US Dollar (USD) seen earlier in the week has come to an end on Wednesday.
• [FXStreet] US Dollar: Labor data and confidence guide outlook – TD Securities
  TD Securities strategists discuss several US indicators, expecting the June ISM Manufacturing index to edge down, while noting that JOLTS job openings remain elevated but likely overstated.

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