【AIセンチメント分析】USDJPY 最新ニュース分析は「強気 (Bullish)」（2026-06-24 18:32時点）

最新の主要な外国為替市場（FX）ニュースを解析し、USDJPY に対する市場心理（センチメント）と影響度を判定しました。

AIによる市場センチメント解説

米連邦準備制度（Fed）のタカ派的なドットプロットによるドル高の継続的な圧力がある一方、日本の介入リスクが上値を抑制する要因となっていますが、依然としてドル高円安の方向性が強いと判断されます。

今回の分析対象ニュース

AIが分析対象とした直近の主要ニュース一覧です。特にセンチメント判定に大きな影響を与えたニュースには「🔥 重要」マークを表示しています。

• 🔥 重要 [Forexlive] Japan must take bold action or risk further significant weakness in the yen – JP Morgan
  <p class=”text-align-justify”>JP Morgan argues that at current levels, Japan’s ministry of finance has to take firm action in order to shoot down speculators or risk another wave of weakness in the yen currency. The firm notes that:</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>”End of last week saw an acceleration through 161 and all of a sudden we are knocking on the door of 162 – somewhere USD/JPY has not been for 40 years. Spicy price action Thursday night bears the hallmark of a rate check but as with the prior suspected episode (clearing of 160 over NFP earlier this month) the rate of recovery has been pretty aggressive.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>We are nearing an inflection point here and the MOF must know anything except bold action will risk a significant acceleration in JPY weakness, we keep hearing from Katayama but it is really Mimura we need to hear from. Not positioned here but would be very surprised if they let this go; they will feel that the energy complex is on their side and they will also be aware that JPY shorts have built to relatively decent level now.”</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>The currency pair is keeping at 161.75 currently and is continuing to poke and prod at the 2024 highs near 161.95 for now.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>At the same time, Credit Agricole outlines below the scope in which Japan might intervene:</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>”According to MOF data released last week, the MOF still has $1.3 trillion in FX reserves it can use to intervene in FX markets. It could therefore intervene on the scale it did in April-May by over 15 more times. The same FX reserve data released last week, however, also suggest Japan likely sold USTS to finance its record $73 billion of FX intervention in the April-May period. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in the past that he would prefer Japan support the JPY via higher rates rather than FX intervention. The US government is becoming increasingly sensitive about the higher UST yields. So, investors could be thinking US-Japan politics could limit the MOF’s ability to intervene.”</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>As a reminder, this giant war chest that Japan has is not exactly “unlimited” in the sense that all the $1.3 trillion is in cold hard cash. As mentioned before:</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>”They have a whopping $1.2 trillion to work with. However, it is important to note that not all of this is in liquid cash deposits. In fact, over 80% of that are in securities which primarily consist of US Treasuries among other foreign government bonds.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>So, it is not to say that they have an “unlimited” tap to keep drinking from if they burn out their cash reserves. If that were to be the case, it’s a tricky situation for the ministry of finance. If it were to come to that, selling Treasuries may have the unintended effect of pushing US yields higher and that is an indirect tailwind for the dollar instead. So, that sort of achieves the opposite effect of what Tokyo wants; that is for a lower USD/JPY.</p><p class=”text-align-justify”>Of course, it’s not as simple as that. However, all of this is part and parcel to the equation and it all adds up to how markets react at the end of the day. As such, that is something I reckon Tokyo officials will want to avoid for as long as they can.”</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
• 🔥 重要 [Forexlive] EUR/USD breaks through a key support zone as the greenback keeps running on hawkish Fed
  <p class=”MsoNormal”>FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p>USD:</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The US dollar continues to be supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). The market increased rate hike bets with now 38 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There’s a 32% chance of a hike already in July and 68% probability of a move in September.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. This should keep supporting the greenback until the next set of economic data.</p><p>EUR:</p><p>On the EUR side, the ECB is maintaining the tightening bias, but all the rate hikes have been already priced in a long time ago. The central bank is now taking a pause at least until September to see how the economic data evolves over the summer. The market is pricing in 28 bps of tightening by year-end with the next hike coming in September at the earliest. </p><p>The Eurozone Flash PMIs yesterday showed unsurprisingly the rate of inflation easing to the slowest pace since February, just before the US-Iran conflict began. While economic activity remains subdued, the downward pressure eased and we might see more improvement in the next months. If the ECB continues to hike, that could weigh on the economy further. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that <a href=”https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/”>EURUSD</a> broke below a key support zone around the 1.14 handle opening the door for a drop towards the 1.10 handle next. If we get some soft US data in the next weeks, we can expect a pullback into the downward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep targeting new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the rally into the 1.18 handle next.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 1.1520 level next. The red lines define the <a href=”https://investinglive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/” target=”_blank”>average daily range</a> for today. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class=”MsoNormal”><a href=”https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar”>Tomorrow</a>, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the US PCE report. On Friday, we conclude the week with the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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